So, an interesting set of results so far..
Nothing surprising so far (and some states to put up on the map that have been called – again no changes from ’08) but interesting that Ohio and Florida have yet to call. Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire have called for Obama, shortening Romney’s pathway to 270.
BBC News coverage has started; expecting Indiana and Kentucky shortly.
Obama will be off to a great night if he carries Indiana again; both are expected (by me included) to be in Mitt Romney’s campy. I’m still expecting Obama to romp to victory with 347 of the electoral college to Romney’s 191 but as yet my map is blank:
We’re getting ready here though:
Keep reading..!
.. so goes the nation.
I have been suggesting, for some time now, that Obama’s path to victory this Tuesday was mired in his ability to win the electoral college whilst the popular vote may have been out of his reach. This, I predicted, was more to do with stronger support for Romney in ‘safe’ Republican states than Obama has been able to maintain in some of his ‘safe’ Democrat states; an example of this would be that Obama is expected to easily carry California but at a lower threshold than he did in 2008.
The pundits, especially some of those in the mainstream media here in the UK, have been calling the election “too close to call” and pegging Obama and Romney on relatively even keels since the first debate where the Republican challenger outperformed the Democrat incumbent on nearly every issue. SInce that point in the campaign, there has been a resurgence from the President who has come out through the last two debates, Hurricane Sandy, and the final stretch of the campaign with a decisive edge not least in the battleground states. As Nate Silver puts it in his blog:
The last three days of polling have brought what is almost certainly Mr. Obama’s strongest run of polling since the first presidential debate in Denver.
Indeed, of the national polls published on Sunday, President Obama seems to be leading the field in ways that the campaign must have only dreamed of pre-Sandy.
There are no statistically significant polls that now project Governor Romney with a lead nationally against Mr Obama; this would be worrying for any challenger against an incumbent with approval ratings consistently hovering above 50%. History has taught us, from elections going back to Reagan and Clinton’s reelection campaigns, that an incumbent with a narrow lead seeking releection tends to be returned to the White House; this holds to thresholds as low as 49% approval in the final week before election day.
However, I’ve consistently said that the election is irrespective of the national picture and that it is the battleground states of Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia (amongst others) that will decide the outcome of the election. The line has always been, as Hillary Clinton pointed out in her 2008 Ohio primary victory speech, that “as Ohio goes, so goes the nation“. The battleground this year looks no different to four years ago, or four years before, or four years before that.. but the pathways that each campaign claims is their walk to victory remains fluid. The Romney campaign has been throwing campaign dollars into states like Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Colorado in an attempt to distract the Obama campaign from the primary targets and to spend money in states that would otherwise have been safe for the Democrats. The strategy doesn’t appear to have worked..
The latest polls for the battleground states reveals a race that can no longer be characterised, by any stretch of the imagination, as close as the data from over the weekend shows:
If Romney can’t even make his own former state competitive, where he spoke about his bipartisan approach, then it makes for worrying reading for the Romney campaign nationally. My own predictions, previously giving Obama an electoral college share of 332 votes, has been updated to give the following:
Who are you voting for?
Ahead of what is going to be one of the most interesting US Election nights that I can recall (and I’m going back to Clinton’s ’96 victory), I’m making my preparations for an evening of excitement and (undoubted) controversy.
(Some of) the commentary on the evening will be provided by my good friend Daniel Mac who has, similar to myself, arranged to take Wednesday off work to watch the election coverage with me. Watch this space for some photos of the weekend of our preparation for the Obama victory parade.
I’m still, at this time, projecting an Obama win of 332 votes to Romney’s 206; check my map here.
I understand times are hard; this won’t be easy. The storm hasn’t quite passed yet. Sometimes the skies look cloudy and it’s dark and you think the rains will never pass. But here is what I understand: that as long as all of us are together, as long as we are all committed, then there’s nothing we can’t do. That’s why we started off this campaign saying “Yes we can”. That’s why we understand that black, white, hispanic, asian, native american, young, old, rich, poor, it doesn’t matter as we’re all Americans and our destiny will be shaped by us and this young generation that’s out here. The young people of America understand that the clouds these too will pass, that a brighter day will come and that if you’re willing to work for us, if you’re willing to roll up your sleeves, if you’re willing to march, and talk to your friends, talk to your neighbours, make a phone call, do some organising – yes – some community organising then I promise you we will win this general election and you and I will change this country and change the world.
- Barack Obama
Governor Romney really is suffering from a bad case of Romnesia isn’t he; he seems intent on forgetting his policy and principled positions to court whatever voters he can. He’s touring around promoting single mothers as a bastion of self-drive and determination; I thought he’d said only two-parent families were worth their salt raising kids.
Increasingly irrelevant, especially with Chris Christie’s effective endorsement of Obama (http://goo.gl/FNOyM), Governor Romney is firing on all thrusters and throwing his campaign to the four winds of chaos. Will voters be able to see through the rhetoric? Probably. Will he still win the popular vote? Probably… but only due to the overwhelming support for Romney in already safe red states.
Read the Article at HuffingtonPost
My apologies, to all those who’ve checked in on this site over the past few days, for the time since my last blog post although I hope that the various videos have both kept you entertained and informed. Starting a new job here in London can be rather hectic..!
We’re now into the final stretch of the 2012 US Presidential Election and, this time next week, we should know who will be sitting in the White House for the next four years. Barring, obviously, any last-minute debacles such as the recounts in Florida in 2000.
Superstorm Sandy has made herself known all across the East Coast in the past few days, leaving dozens dead and millions without power across a raft of states. President Obama was quick to suspend his campaign, declaring the states of New York and New Jersey disaster areas to enable them to receive emergency federal funding, before heading back to Washington to closely monitor the situation as well as speaking directly with elected officials, Republican and Democrat alike, in the affected areas. In possibly one of his greatest coups of the election, President Obama will today tour the damage in New Jersey with the state’s Republican Governor Chris Christie.
Governor Christie is not just a Republican however; he, as keynote speaker at the Republican National Convention in August, has been the party’s critic-in-chief of the Obama administration and is widely being touted at the 2016 Republican presidential candidate should Mitt fail this tie around.
“The federal government’s response has been great. I was on the phone at midnight again last night with the president, personally, he has expedited the designation of New Jersey as a major disaster area.”
“He gave me his number at the White House and told me to call him if I needed anything.”
Coming from the man who has made no efforts over the last four years to hide his dislike of the President, the resounding support for Barack Obama from Chris Christie is incredible. Coupled with his determination to be the President at this time of crisis, and Mitt Romney’s dogged attempts to turn the storm into a political event (especially in the key battleground state of Ohio), Obama has an opportunity to show millions of Americans exactly why he is the Commander-in-Chief.
As Governor Christie said, when asked on Fox News on Tuesday whether he would tour stricken parts of his state with the Republican nominee, “I have no idea, nor am I the least bit concerned or interested. I’ve got a job to do here in New Jersey that’s much bigger than presidential politics, and I could care less about any of that stuff.” Check out the video of him praising President Obama on Fox News earlier.
I think it’s worth pointing out that, as a candidate seeking the Republican part nomination, Governor Romney said that he would seek to return federal money back to the individual states and shut down FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, that is swinging into action to support New York and New Jersey after Sandy. Indeed, when asked the question by reporters at least eleven times whilst ‘campaigning’ today, the Governor would neither confirm nor deny that he would dismantle FEMA as President. Have a look at the video yourself:
Quickly looking at the national polls (separate blog post to follow on this), I’m still confident of an Obama victory on November 6th. Perhaps not as large as predicted, I need to revisit the polling data in depth, the electoral college should still swing for Obama; the popular vote remains to be seen. Ipsos/Reuters have conducted a poll (with the largest sample size of any recently taken) between the 26th and 30th October that places Obama ahead by a point which echoes that of a CBS/Times poll over the same period and a UPI/CVOTER that shows the same data. Only a few days ago Governor Romney had enjoyed a lead nationally of up to 5% in some polls; this was mostly buoyed by significantly strong support in the southern ‘red’ states. The change of the trends in the data might reflect growing support for the President in some of the more crucial swing states; the picture is not yet clear.
I want to look at four battleground states in particular; Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia. In Florida three recent polls (JZ Analytics/Newsmax, PPP, and Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS) all have President Obama leading by a percentage point. Every single poll, with the exception of a Rasmussen study, has the President leading by at least 2 points and in some cases by a margin as wide as six points. Two recent polls in North Carolina (PPP, Elon) have Obama and Romney on exactly level-pegging in a state that should have been a clear win for the Republican candidate whereas, in Virginia, 7 out of the 10 most recent polls are plumping for Obama by margins of between +2% and +5%.
Ohio and Virginia seem to be following the trend of Pennsylvania (there are no polls available that have Romney leading in that state); this is clearly a worrying sign for the Republican challenger’s campaign team. Florida continues to be “too close to call” but the “Mitt-mentum” hasn’t managed to put the state into the red column; I continue to hold that the seniors and Latinos will come out in strong numbers for Obama and keep it blue.
The path to victory for Governor Romney looks so complicated, and often unnavigable, that it is hard to see how he can stage a victory in the electoral college. Superstorm Sandy really may have finally sunk Mitt’s battleship; the final push over the weekend will show the true state of the race.
“I’m asking the entire country to rally around a set of goals for our country – goals in manufacturing, energy, education, national security and the deficit… This is a real, achievable plan that will lead to new jobs and more opportunity, and rebuild this economy on a stronger
foundation.” – President Obama
Further to my last post, to download your own copy of Barack Obama’s 20-page plan to keep the economy on the road to recovery then click here: The New Economic Patriotism.
It’s time for a new economic patriotism, rooted in the belief that growing our economy begins with a strong, thriving middle class. Over the past 31 months, American businesses have created 5.2 million jobs. Independent economists project that our economy will create an additional 12 million jobs in the next four years. The President believes we must do even more to grow our economy and strengthen the middle class. The goal of his jobs plan is to strengthen middle-class security by making smart investments in education and training, growing small businesses, promoting technology and innovation, and reducing the deficit.
To see for yourself what the last four years of the Obama administration has achieved, and why going back to the failed policies of the last Bush decade would be a grave mistake, check out the graph of private sector job creation since before Barack Obama took office.
December 2007 to Present
Jobs data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Looks pretty good to me..!
The last time Margaret Harris voted was in 1928—and the next time will be on November 6, 2012 for President Barack Obama. Margaret always encouraged her family to be educated citizens—a family that includes about 88 grandchildren and great-grandchildren.
She’s seen a lot of change living through World War II and the civil rights era. Now she’s continuing to move forward by making sure President Obama is re-elected while encouraging her family and friends to do the same.
As Margaret shares:
“Being honest is the most important thing—treating everybody right. Barack Obama is honest and I love him for it. I appreciate him. I know he’s looking out for me.”
Forget what I said in my last post, this video is this another one that you should watch before going to the polls on Nov 6th especially if you’re a senior citizen visitor to this site:
If Margaret Harris can motivate herself to vote in this election, the first time she’s done so since 1928, then surely all eligible to cast their ballot can get to their polling station and exercise their own democratic right to vote. As Grumpy Old Man says in a recent post it doesn’t matter who you vote for as long as you Get Out The Vote on November 6th.
You can read more about President Obama’s detailed plan for his second term here and look at Governor Romney’s five-point plan on his website.
Those who follow this blog will know that I’m an Obama-leaning British liberal-conservative (fiscally conservative and socially liberal) so, of course, I would urge you to vote to reelect Obama from a variety of positions. However I’m not so cynical that I would rather Republican voters stayed at home than turned out to vote; a democracy is always stronger when more of its citizens participate.
So remember. Gotta vote? Go here: http://OFA.BO/A2adgn
Brandon Sutton has written a very interesting piece about Jonathan Chait’s article in the New York Magazine that looks at whether the Romney campaign’s self-declared “momentum” is reflected in the polls and if, indeed, the Governor can win the 305 electoral votes that some of his advisers continue to claim are within sight.
There is no doubt that Romney gained in the polls following the first Presidential Debate. Romney gained on the President in national and state polling, but has not been able to surpass the president in any of the state polling that matters. Romney strategy is clear; he wants to instill a sense of inevitability in his candidacy while putting doubt in the president’s supporters. Romney says he is winning and has the momentum, but just like almost every statement he has made in this campaign it is a lie, don’t believe him.
I continue to see data in the polls that would support this; Obama is going to win this election comfortably and I am predicting a victory for the President of 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206.
For any of you who are undecided, and I’m hoping there are some of you in the hundreds that read this blog on a weekly basis, there is one video I think you should watch that shows exactly why Barack Obama is going to be reelected as President of the United States. The video outlines the challenges America faced as President Obama took office at the height of the worst recession in almost a century and details the progress that has been made reclaiming the security of the middle class and building an economy that’s meant to last, where hard work pays and responsibility is rewarded.
Now, go vote.
